March investment vodcast

From major market moves to emerging trends, today our investment solutions experts Daniel Finucane and Jacqueline Hogan break down what's happening and what it could mean for your portfolio. This podcast was recorded 12^th March 2026.

Market overview

When asked to summarise market activity since the start of 2026, Daniel noted that the year has already been “very eventful.”

His review focused on equity market performance and European government bond returns. These asset classes have shown distinct return profiles, reflecting shifting macroeconomic expectations and investor sentiment.

Asset class performance

Daniel highlighted comparative relative returns between global equities and European government bonds. This framing helps investors understand how risk assets vs. defensive assets have behaved in early 2026.

Currency insights

A key discussion point was the US dollar’s relationship to the euro. Daniel noted: “We can expect maybe to lead to a further weakening of the dollar against the euro… something to keep in mind.”

This expectation reflects evolving rate differentials and macroeconomic conditions.

Opportunities for 2026 (Bull Case)

It was noted that there are several potential positive drivers for markets in 2026 and beyond.

1. AI Monetization: “AI monetization is a huge point of focus for the market at the moment,” Daniel said. “If companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon successfully convert AI investment into revenue, investor skepticism may ease.”

2. Stabilising US Inflation: A return toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target could significantly improve consumer confidence and equity market sentiment.

3. Easing trade tensions: If recently re-emerging tariff tensions dissipate, markets may benefit from reduced uncertainty.

4. Eurozone infrastructure spending: The Eurozone’s fiscal reform efforts could boost economic growth — but only if planned spending materialises.

Risks to monitor (Bear Case)

The “for the bears” there are some risks that could disrupt markets:

1. Overexuberance in AI: “We’re likely going to live through the highest CapEx periods of our time in terms of spending on AI,” Daniel pointed out. Markets remain uncertain about whether this investment will deliver sufficient returns.

2. Renewed trade tensions: Tariff-related uncertainty has already re-entered the market landscape and may escalate.

3. German fiscal stimulus risks: While removing the debt brake was a positive signal, the key question is whether it leads to actual economic growth.

4. Geopolitical instability: Geopolitical tensions remain elevated in 2026, especially the US–Iran situation, which Daniel highlighted as a “key point of focus.”

Geopolitical considerations

2026 already offered meaningful geopolitical shocks. These events have implications for energy markets, global supply chains and investor risk appetite

Daniel emphasised the importance of global awareness in managing portfolios throughout the year.

Zurich's fund range Yearly investment outlook