Trump triggers fall off

Trump triggers fall off

  • Investments
All major equity markets were down this week, with the US market suffering its worst week of the year, writes Ian Slattery. 

A surprise announcement from the US administration about forthcoming tariffs on Mexican goods triggered a sharp rally in global bond markets, with the ten year Treasury yield gapping down to 2.12% on Friday. This was the biggest daily move since the Fed’s March meeting, while the ten year Bund yield fell to a new low of -0.21%.

Investors are reassessing the global growth and policy outlook amid escalating trade tensions, as the US market suffered its worst week this year, falling over 2.5%. The trigger for last week’s selloff was President Trump’s announcement that tariffs of up to 25% on all Mexican goods would be imposed if Mexico does not take decisive steps to fight illegal migration to the US.

However, Eurozone lending growth to households picked up to 3.4% YoY in April from 3.3% YoY in March, and US households remain in an upbeat mood with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising in May.

 

1 Week Return

24.05.19 to 31.05.19

Year to Date Return

31.12.18 to 31.05.19

 

Local Currency

Euro

Local Currency

Euro

World

-2.3%

-1.8%

8.6%

11.4%

US

-2.6%

-2.3%

10.1%

13.0%

Europe

-1.8%

-1.8%

9.5%

9.5%

Ireland

-0.3%

-0.3%

13.2%

13.2%

UK

-1.6%

-1.9%

6.0%

7.7%

Japan

-1.9%

-0.6%

1.8%

5.9%

Hong Kong

-2.3%

-1.8%

7.4%

10.1%

Corporate Bonds

0.2%

0.2%

3.5%

3.5%

Sovereign Bonds

0.7%

0.7%

5.5%

5.5%

 

Equities

The MSCI World was down more than 2% in local terms with the euro return also down 1.8%. All major equity markets were down this week, with the US market suffering its worst week of the year.

Fixed Income & FX

The US 10 year yield ticked lower again during the week, moving to 2.12% from 2.32%.The German equivalent almost moved to a record low of  -0.21%. The Euro US Dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the previous week at 1.12, whilst Euro/GBP was at 0.88.

Commodities

Oil finished the week lower at just below $53 per barrel. Gold finished the week up at $1,305 per troy ounce. Copper finished the week down at $5,806 per tonne.

The week ahead

Thursday 6th June:

Eurozone unemployment and inflation data for May is released.

The ECB meets for their latest interest rate decision.

Friday 7th June:

US Jobs report for May goes to print.


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